[A/S] RE: After the 8.1 liter engine, then what?

["Oliver Filippi" <ofilippi@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Ron,

Don't panic.  If the US automakers won't build a large engine for a large
SUV for towing, I'm sure a Japanese automaker will.

Seriously, there are three major parameters the automakers have to deal
with.  One is the government fuel economy standards (and future standards).
The second is emission standards (and future standards). And finally, what
is the market, and hence potential revenue, for a given vehicle?

In recent years, it seems that American automakers have been very poor at
the third parameter.

On the surface (to those with the green eyeshades), the pickup seems to be
the answer to all of the above, in that as a truck it can get around (to a
greater extent than a "passenger vehicle") the emission and fuel economy
constraints.  In addition, the current popularity of higher trim level
pickups has established a sizeable market.

Of course the above logic completely misses the following of the heavy duty
Suburban tow vehicle customers. Consequently, if the automakers ignore this
market without a good alternative, they will be making a big mistake.

Recall how the convertible was written off by all the automakers about ten
years ago for safety reasons.  They came back.  Chrysler stated to make
them, and almost instantly, the "me too" competitors had convertibles in
their product lines!

Fuel economy is a major factor. On the other hand, the automotive industry
has a lot of technology to improve fuel economy.  For gasoline engines, the
modern computer controlled engine management systems are quite remarkable in
improving power output and performance while holding down fuel consumption.
The "variable displacement" engine, a fancy name for a system which allows
the engine to run on fewer cylinders (and therefore consume less fuel) when
the power is not needed is a well debugged technology (even though it was a
real fiasco some years ago on the Cadillac, which did not have access to
today's computer controlled port fuel injection technology). Turbo charging
and supercharging are other technologies which allow a small displacement
(and inherently less fuel hungry engine at lower power outputs) engine to
produce more power on demand (at which time it will then burn more fuel).

Bottom line, GM could replace the 8.1 liter engine with a more sophisticated
design which would have comparable power and be significantly more fuel
efficient.

Modern diesel engine technology has the potential to provide another
excellent solution, especially now that low sulfur diesel fuel will be
readily available by year end. New technologies are going into production on
Volkswagen and Mercedes diesels which will make the diesel much cleaner than
gasoline engines, more fuel efficient! Diesels inherently have high torque
at low rpm for low speed power (a highly desirable capability for towing).
One of the beauties of the diesel combustion process is that it only has to
burn sufficient fuel to produce the power needed at any given time (up to
its limit). The combination of computer controlled common rail direct
injection and turbo charging allow the new diesels to completely combust all
the fuel that is injected into the cylinders - hence NO SMOKE and no wasted
fuel.

Furthermore, the auto industry (especially the American one) is fighting for
its life.  Its two major problems are antiquated labor agreements and
something seldom mentioned - a world wide over capacity in the auto
industry.

About twenty years ago, Toyota developed a manufacturing methodology called
"Lean Production" as opposed to mass production, which allowed them to
produce higher quality vehicles and also develop new models and put them
into production in less time and at lower cost.  This technology is now well
known and is being implemented world wide.  Obviously, some manufacturers
have mastered the technology better than others.

So, worst case (in the short run), you may have to live with a glitzy
extended or crew cab diesel pickup with a camper shell (like Hunter's) until
the rebirth of the next generation Suburban. However, since the pickup and
the Suburban share so many parts, it would not take GM very long to scramble
and get a Suburban follow on into production, even if they had initially
given up on the idea.  Furthermore, the pressure to develop more powerful,
fuel efficient, clean burning engines will also lower the cost of keeping
the Suburban alive, and the financial risk of losing the market it
addresses. So, in spite of what may be the current thinking (to drop the 8.1
liter gasoline powered Suburban) a superior functional equivalent might
actually be in the offing.

Although I am not impressed with many of the managerial decisions of the
major automakers, one does see some flashes of brilliance and market
sensitivity once in a while. Note that Ford has come up with an integral
trailer brake controller that is part of the computer controlled antilock
brake system of the tow vehicle (while we have been struggling with
alternatives to the old hydraulic brake controllers).

Another example is the dramatic improvement in product offerings and quality
of Chrysler products since the merger with Daimler Benz.  Daimler Chrysler
has done a multitude of positive things with the Chrysler product line that
the old Chrysler firm never recognized.  Ironically, the current parent
company doesn't seem to be able to do the same for its own Mercedes line.
One look at the current Consumer Reports Auto Issue shows the mediocre
quality (poor reliability) of the current Mercedes vehicles (a bugaboo which
will cause them some major problems if not recognized and remedied quickly).
[The Germans are not very good at designing and building highly reliable
electronics, which they are introducing to compete with their electronically
glitzy, Japanese competitors].

GM has an ace up its sleeve that it may not even recognize.  Delphi - the
spun off electrical/electronics division that is in bankruptcy (or on the
verge of bankruptcy).  In each of the last several years, Delphi has
received more patents than any other automotive company world wide!  Note
that the major advances in the technology of the modern automobile (and tow
vehicle) will likely be in the realm of computers and electronics rather
than in the traditional mechanical engineering areas.

Bottom line. As the automakers fight for survival, there are likely to be an
increasing number of significant (and desirable) innovations.  [Speaking of
innovation, have you seen the recent Ford TV commercials, where William Clay
Ford (the CEO himself) talks about innovation?]

Oliver Filippi